Tom Friedman on Georgia and Russia: What Did We Expect?

Tom Friedman writes in The New York Times:

If the conflict in Georgia were an Olympic event, the gold medal for brutish stupidity would go to the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin. The silver medal for bone-headed recklessness would go to Georgia’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili, and the bronze medal for rank short-sightedness would go to the Clinton and Bush foreign policy teams.

Let’s start with us. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, I was among the group — led by George Kennan, the father of “containment” theory, Senator Sam Nunn and the foreign policy expert Michael Mandelbaum — that argued against expanding NATO, at that time.

It seemed to us that since we had finally brought down Soviet communism and seen the birth of democracy in Russia the most important thing to do was to help Russian democracy take root and integrate Russia into Europe. Wasn’t that why we fought the cold war — to give young Russians the same chance at freedom and integration with the West as young Czechs, Georgians and Poles? Wasn’t consolidating a democratic Russia more important than bringing the Czech Navy into NATO?

All of this was especially true because, we argued, there was no big problem on the world stage that we could effectively address without Russia — particularly Iran or Iraq. Russia wasn’t about to reinvade Europe. And the Eastern Europeans would be integrated into the West via membership in the European Union.

No, said the Clinton foreign policy team, we’re going to cram NATO expansion down the Russians’ throats, because Moscow is weak and, by the way, they’ll get used to it. Message to Russians: We expect you to behave like Western democrats, but we’re going to treat you like you’re still the Soviet Union. The cold war is over for you, but not for us.

“The Clinton and Bush foreign policy teams acted on the basis of two false premises,” said Mandelbaum. “One was that Russia is innately aggressive and that the end of the cold war could not possibly change this, so we had to expand our military alliance up to its borders. Despite all the pious blather about using NATO to promote democracy, the belief in Russia’s eternal aggressiveness is the only basis on which NATO expansion ever made sense — especially when you consider that the Russians were told they could not join. The other premise was that Russia would always be too weak to endanger any new NATO members, so we would never have to commit troops to defend them. It would cost us nothing. They were wrong on both counts.”

The humiliation that NATO expansion bred in Russia was critical in fueling Putin’s rise after Boris Yeltsin moved on. And America’s addiction to oil helped push up energy prices to a level that gave Putin the power to act on that humiliation. This is crucial backdrop.

Nevertheless, today we must support all diplomatic efforts to roll back the Russian invasion of Georgia. Georgia is a nascent free-market democracy, and we can’t just watch it get crushed. But we also can’t refrain from noting that Saakashvili’s decision to push his troops into Tskhinvali, the heart of Georgia’s semiautonomous pro-Russian enclave of South Ossetia, gave Putin an easy excuse to exercise his iron fist.

As The Washington Post’s longtime Russia watcher Michael Dobbs noted: “On the night of Aug. 7 ..., Saakashvili ordered an artillery barrage against Tskhinvali and sent an armored column to occupy the town. He apparently hoped that Western support would protect Georgia from major Russian retaliation, even though Russian ‘peacekeepers’ were almost certainly killed or wounded in the Georgian assault. It was a huge miscalculation.”

And as The Economist magazine also wrote, “Saakashvili is an impetuous nationalist.” His thrust into South Ossetia “was foolish and possibly criminal. But unlike Putin, he has led his country in a broadly democratic direction, curbed corruption and presided over rapid economic growth that has not relied, as Russia’s mostly does, on high oil and gas prices.”

That is why the gold medal for brutishness goes to Putin. Yes, NATO expansion was foolish. Putin exploited it to choke Russian democracy. But now, petro-power-grabbing has gone to his head — whether it's invading Georgia, bullying Western financiers and oil companies working in Russia, or using Russia’s gas supplies to intimidate its neighbors.

If it persists, this behavior will push every Russian neighbor to seek protection from Moscow and will push the Europeans to redouble their efforts to find alternatives to Russian oil and gas. This won’t happen overnight, but in time it will stretch Russia’s defenses and lead it to become more isolated, more insecure and less wealthy.

For all these reasons, Russia would be wise to reconsider Putin’s Georgia gambit. If it does, we would be wise to reconsider where our NATO/Russia policy is taking us — and whether we really want to spend the 21st century containing Russia the same way we spent much of the 20th containing the Soviet Union.

David Gergen: McCain showed that he can be a much more formidable and effective campaigner in a joint appearance than hardly anyone imagined.

David Gergen writes on CNN:

Heading into the candidates’ appearances on Saturday night at Saddleback Church, the conventional wisdom in politics was Barack Obama should have a clear upper hand in any joint appearance with John McCain — one the young, eloquent, cool, charismatic dude who can charm birds from the trees, the other the meandering, sometimes bumbling, old fellow who can barely distinguish Sunnis from Shiias.

Well, kiss that myth goodbye.

McCain came roaring out of the gate from the first question and was a commanding figure throughout the night as he spoke directly and often movingly about his past and the country’s future. By contrast, Obama was often searching for words and while far more thoughtful, was also less emotionally connective with his audience.

McCain showed that he can be a much more formidable and effective campaigner in a joint appearance than hardly anyone imagined. The debates this fall are going to be pivotal to the final outcome of the election, and McCain gave a clear wake-up call to the Obama team that he may be much tougher to beat than expected.

[T]he message of the moment is that John McCain is no old fuddy-duddy who isn’t sure where he is going; he was on fire at Saddleback and for the first time, he looks like he could win in November.

House to Rethink Drilling, Pelosi Says

From The New York Times:

Dropping her opposition to a vote on coastal oil exploration, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Saturday that the House would consider expanded offshore drilling as part of broad energy legislation when Congress returns next month.

United States is losing its ability to patrol and safeguard Arctic waters

From The New York Times:

A growing array of military leaders, Arctic experts and lawmakers say the United States is losing its ability to patrol and safeguard Arctic waters even as climate change and high energy prices have triggered a burst of shipping and oil and gas exploration in the thawing region.

In the meantime, a resurgent Russia has been busy expanding its fleet of large oceangoing icebreakers to around 14, launching a large conventional icebreaker in May and, last year, the world’s largest icebreaker, named 50 Years of Victory, the newest of its seven nuclear-powered, pole-hardy ships.

Good move: Democrats Pick Warner As Keynote Speaker

From The Washington Post:

Democratic Party leaders announced yesterday that former Virginia governor Mark R. Warner will deliver the keynote address at their national convention in Denver this month . . .

The choice of Warner appeared to dim chances that the state's current governor, Timothy M. Kaine, would be selected as the Democrats' vice presidential nominee.
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In a 3-21-05 post I wrote about the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner and reviewed the remarks by Gov. Warner who was the keynote speaker. He delivered one powerful message. The part of the post on his remarks follows:

Gov. Warner noted that when he ran for governor of Virginia in 2001, Virginia had not voted Democratic since 1964, and had not had a Democrat governor elected in 10 years.

Warner said the reasons he ran, in addition to cleaning up the mess the Republicans had made in Richmond just as they have made a mess in Atlanta, were to:

• Show it is OK to like country music and be a Democrat;

• Show it is OK to own a gun and be a Democrat; and

• Show it is OK to be a NASCAR fan and be a Democrat.

Warner stressed that we must reject the approach of writing off the South. To return to power, Democrats must be competitive in every state.

Gov. Warner said he believes strongly that to capture the White House:

(1) Democrats must appeal to moderate Republicans and rural America; and

(2) Democrats must be fiscally responsible, and become the party known for being fiscally conservative. For him, being fiscally conservative means someone who pays his bills and meets his commitments.

In connection with being fiscally conservative, Gov. Warner noted that ours is going to be the first generation ever to leave our children worse off than we were, and this is just wrong.

He says that the Republican administration under Bush has told America that it can wage war and cut taxes for the affluent at the same time.

To retake the White House, Warner says Democrats must reach out to folks who have not voted Democratic in years.

He noted that moderate Republicans are an endangered species.

Moderate Republicans don't like:

• The debt that Bush has given us in lieu of the surplus former President Clinton left;

• The mean streak that the GOP is identified with in persons such as Ralph Reed and Rep. Tom DeLay; and

• A party commited to winning at any cost, as typified by Senator Chambliss's attack against former Sen. Max Cleland.

Gov. Warner noted that in days gone by, folks who are now moderate Republicans would have been conservative Democrats. Our challenge is to get these moderate Republicans to vote Democratic.

And we must win back rural America.

The Governor noted that Democrats have been misrepresented on:

• Accepting values and personal responsibilities;

• Having respect for the Second Amendment; and

• Having a litmus test for abortion and guns.

As a party we must do more than just be against things. We must be for things! Things we must be for include:

• A party that is for a strong military and presence in the world.

• A party that is for an aggressive and engaged foreign policy and enlists the cooperation of our allies. (On this point, the Governor noted that in the last presidential we lost a great opportunity in not asking Americans to be willing to be willing to experience some personal sacrifice versus willing to go into debt and still reduce taxes.)

• A party that honors and rewards work.

• A party that is an advocate for innovation.

• A party that is recognized for racial reconciliation across the United States with black, Hispanics and other minorities.

• A party that is for reforming things.

• A party that wants to balance the budget and meet its responsibilities.

• A party that continues to remember the role that faith and religion and values play in our lives.

Gov. Warner concluded by saying he was encouraged at the present, not discouraged. If it can and did happen in Virginia, we can do it in Georgia and other southern states.And more than anything, he noted in closing, the challenge we face is the challenge to once again lead; stand up and lead.

Needless to say, the crowd in unison stood up, and as one who was there and did that, I can tell you, we are ready, ready to stand up and lead. Bring 2006 on Bubba Perdue; bring it on Ralph Reed; bring it on Philistines; bring it on. We are ready, willing and able -- and cannot wait -- to once again lead.

G.O.P. in House at Risk in Northeast

From The New York Times:

Across the increasingly Democratic Northeast, Republicans are in danger of losing half a dozen or more Congressional seats in November, as even districts once considered safe have become vulnerable to well-financed Democrats, according to political analysts and members of both parties.

The Republican Party’s challenges in the nine-state Northeast region are a reflection of what the party faces across the country as it is being forced to defend dozens of Congressional seats that are now considered competitive at a time when the party has limited financial resources, political analysts said.

All told, there are roughly a dozen competitive Congressional races in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and New Hampshire, nearly all of them in districts now held by Republicans, according to analysts and strategists in both parties.

Downtowns across the U.S. see streetcars in their future -- Plans to revive a transit system that was dismantled in the 1950s

From The New York Times:

At least 40 . . . cities are exploring streetcar plans to spur economic development, ease traffic congestion and draw young professionals and empty-nest baby boomers back from the suburbs . . . .

More than a dozen have existing lines, including New Orleans, which is restoring a system devastated by Hurricane Katrina. And Denver, Houston, Salt Lake City and Charlotte, N.C., have introduced or are planning to introduce streetcars.

“They serve to coalesce a neighborhood,” said Jim Graebner, chairman of the American Public Transportation Association’s streetcar and vintage trolley committee. “That’s very evident in places like San Francisco, which never got rid of its streetcar system.”

Modern streetcars, like those Cincinnati plans to use, cost about $3 million each, run on an overhead electrical wire and carry up to 130 passengers per car on rails that are flush with the pavement. And since streetcars can pick up passengers on either side, they can make shorter stops than buses.

In a Generation, Minorities May Be the U.S. Majority

From The New York Times:

Ethnic and racial minorities will comprise a majority of the nation’s population in a little more than a generation, according to new Census Bureau projections, a transformation that is occurring faster than anticipated just a few years ago.

The census calculates that by 2042, Americans who identify themselves as Hispanic, black, Asian, American Indian, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander will together outnumber non-Hispanic whites. Four years ago, officials had projected the shift would come in 2050.

The main reason for the accelerating change is significantly higher birthrates among immigrants. Another factor is the influx of foreigners, rising from about 1.3 million annually today to more than 2 million a year by midcentury, according to projections based on current immigration policies.

The Political Insider reports that Democrats are ready to unload on McCain, Reed over Atlanta fund-raiser

From the AJC's Political Insider:

The signs are unmistakable. Democrats are about to unload on Republican presidential candidate John McCain — and the upcoming Atlanta event that Ralph Reed is helping to boost.

Today’s The Hill, a newspaper that covers Congress, notes that McCain has thus far ignored calls to cancel the fund-raiser from “watchdog groups” who note Reed’s former association with imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

An investigation driven by McCain, as chairman of the Senate Indian Affairs Committee, uncovered much of the relationship.

But Democrats are no longer much impressed. This paragraph is from the Hill:

“Calling yourself a maverick and claiming credit for fighting corruption while raising money with one of the central figures in the Jack Abramoff corruption scandal is not what most voters have in mind when they think of ‘straight talk,’” said Damien LaVera, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee. “It is, however, one more example of why John McCain is offering more of the same failed Republican leadership.”

Strange and crude goings on within the GOP ranks as they attack Sen. Chambliss and the Gang of 10 proposals.

In an 8-2-08 post entitled "Obama is listening to the Cracker Squire: Signals Support for Wider Offshore Drilling if Part of Comprehensive Energy Policy Aimed at Lower Gas Prices," I wrote:

With this step behind both [the Obama and McCain] campaigns, I predict it is only a matter of time before both campaigns begin to relax their opposition to drilling the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in northeastern Alaska in the Alaska North Slope region.

Well, Cracker Squire -- and even though you say it's a new day and under such new circumstances you are in favor of drilling in the ANWR -- not so fast.

If you are not familiar with the proposals of the "Gang of 10," you owe it to yourself to become familiar with them. They truly represent major compromise on both sides in major areas, and their substance makes it is understandable why Obama had kind words to say about the proposals and indicated a willingness to compromise his position on drilling.

In an attempt to avoid areas too controversial, the Gang of 10 proposals do not include drilling in the ANWR.

But I really was taken back when I read in the AJC's Political Insider that Georgia Republican Rep. Phil Gingrey, who last week criticized the Gang of 10 energy compromise, has joined a bipartisan effort as one of the more than 100 co-sponsors of a House compromise energy plan that would allow drilling offshore, but not in the ANWR.

The Insider reports that:

Asked about the House compromise, Gingrey defended it as a "giant step forward" in ending offshore drilling bans, even if it doesn’t include ANWR. "I am proud to join Republicans and Democrats alike in advancing this debate," he said.

And how’s that different from the “Gang of Ten” in the Senate? Gingrey’s staff didn’t say — except to cite summaries suggesting the House compromise bill is broader.

Sen. Chambliss was exactly on point when he told Neal Boortz, according to the AJC's Political Insider:

"[T]here are people — and I hear you saying the same thing some other talk shows are saying [meaning Rush Limbaugh] — who rather than finding a solution to a crisis that exists in America, you’d rather have a campaign issue for the election."

I was out of town last weekend and did not get to post the article that got Rush Limbaugh, Neal Boortz and others all worked up, but I was going to post it when I returned Sunday night. By that time the conservative wing of the media which prefers to use this topic as a campaign issue media rather than work toward a solution had already picked up on it, and I did not do a post.

It is found in The Wall Street Journal. It begins:

Politics has its puzzling moments. John McCain and most of the GOP experienced one late last week. That was when five of their own set about dismantling the best issue Republicans have in the upcoming election.

It's taken time, but Sen. McCain and his party have finally found -- in energy -- an issue that's working for them. Riding voter discontent over high gas prices, the GOP has made antidrilling Democrats this summer's headlines.

Their enthusiasm has given conservative candidates a boost in tough races. And Mr. McCain has pressured Barack Obama into an energy debate, where the Democrat has struggled to explain shifting and confused policy proposals.

Still, it was probably too much to assume every Republican would work out that their side was winning this issue. And so, last Friday, in stumbled Sens. Lindsey Graham, John Thune, Saxby Chambliss, Bob Corker and Johnny Isakson -- alongside five Senate Democrats. This "Gang of 10" announced a "sweeping" and "bipartisan" energy plan to break Washington's energy "stalemate." What they did was throw every vulnerable Democrat, and Mr. Obama, a life preserver.

That's because the plan is a Democratic giveaway. New production on offshore federal lands is left to state legislatures, and then in only four coastal states. The regulatory hurdles are huge. And the bill bars drilling within 50 miles of the coast -- putting off limits some of the most productive areas. Alaska's oil-rich Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is still a no-go.

The highlight is instead $84 billion in tax credits, subsidies and federal handouts for alternative fuels and renewables. The Gang of 10 intends to pay for all this in part by raising taxes on . . . oil companies! The Sierra Club couldn't have penned it better. And so the Republican Five has potentially given antidrilling Democrats the political cover they need to neutralize energy through November.

I still predict what I wrote in my 8-3-08 post entitled "The Gang of 10 -- A list of the senators who have proposed a much needed bipartisan energy compromise plan:"

As noted in an earlier post, in a move that could signal a possible softening of Obama's position, his campaign on Friday issued a statement praising the bill but stopped short of an endorsement.

Trying to have it both ways, McCain's campaign immediately accused Obama of flip flopping, while at the same time McCain said he would not support the proposal.

You can take this prediction to the bank. McCain will prove to be the ultimate flip flopper on this issue as he, along with more and more senators, signs onto an attempt to solve our energy crisis.

Again I encourage you to become familiar with the Gang of 10 proposals. They truly represent bipartisan compromises on difficult issues.

U.S. Power Vacuum Gives Adversaries Room to Maneuver

From The Wall Street Journal:

The Kremlin's expanding military push into Georgia is fueling concerns within Washington's national-security establishment of a broader challenge to U.S. power globally during President George W. Bush's waning months in office.

From the Caucasus Mountains to the Middle East and South Asia, U.S. diplomats and strategists say historical U.S. adversaries, such as Moscow and Tehran, appear to be exploiting Washington's impending political transition, and the White House's fixation on Iraq, to pursue international actions that might otherwise spark a more robust response from Washington and its allies.

Even U.S. allies, such as Israel and Pakistan, have shown a desire in recent months to pursue foreign policies independent of the U.S., and possibly against Washington's interests.

U.S. officials worry that the strong Russian response in Georgia reflects a broader purpose than simply repelling the Georgian attack on pro-Russian separatists in South Ossetia. Some administration officials fear that the Russians are hoping to quell the pro-Western movement in Georgia and reassert Russian dominance in the Caucasus. And if Georgia returns to Russia's sphere of influence, officials worry, Ukraine could be next.

The situation could expose U.S. and European impotence in protecting the fledgling allies that emerged from the ruins of the Soviet Union over the past two decades. The Bush administration pressed hard in the run-up to this year's North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Bucharest to put Georgia and Ukraine on track for NATO membership, but lobbying by then-Russian President Vladimir Putin led some Western European allies -- notably Germany -- to postpone the bids.
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Although Medvedev announced Russia is ending its current military operation against Georgian forces because it has achieved its goals, the Russian president stopped short of saying Russia would withdraw its troops from Georgia. (The Wall Street Journal)

On no, not again: Two for the price of one -- Michelle Obama to speak at convention

I had very mixed reactions in learning that Michelle Obama will be the star attraction on the opening night at the Democratic National Convention in Denver on Aug. 25. (The Washington Post)

The headline reads: "Former Nichols judge critical of DA." The Cracker Squire says: "Judge Fuller, zip it; when will you learn not to comment."

From the AJC:

The former judge in the Brian Nichols' murder trial, Hilton Fuller, said Saturday that prosecutors share the blame with defense attorneys for all the delays and millions of dollars spent in the case.

Howard declined to comment Saturday, citing a gag order on the case.

State lawmakers and others harshly criticized [Judge Fuller's] handling of the case, including his decision to hire four attorneys for Nichols, running expenditures in the case up to $1.8 million.

Fuller suspended the trial indefinitely last year when state money for the case was cut off. He resigned from the case in January after he was quoted in The New Yorker magazine saying, "Everyone in the world knows he [Nichols] did it."

Turkey Edwards: My cheating on Elizabeth in 2006 was oncologically correct.

Maureen Edwards writes in The New York Times:

The creepiest part of [Edwards'] creepy confession was when he stressed to Woodruff that he cheated on Elizabeth in 2006 when her cancer was in remission. His infidelity was oncologically correct.

The president manqué gives Rielle Hunter, formerly Lisa Druck, more than $114,000 to shoot vain little videos for his Web site (even though she’s a neophyte) . . . .

He has an affair with Hunter, while he’s honing his speech on the imperative to “live in a moral, honest, just America.”

It isn’t like we didn’t know that the son of a millworker was a little enraptured by himself, radiating self-love from his smile and his man-in-a-hurry airs and the notorious $800 bill for a pair of haircuts and his two-minute YouTube hair primping to the tune of “I Feel Pretty.”

In the Hunter video titled “Plane Truths,” Edwards is relaxing on his plane, telling the out-of-frame director: “I’ve come to the personal conclusion that I actually want the country to see who I am, who I really am, but I don’t know what the result of that will be. But for me personally, I’d rather be successful or unsuccessful based on who I really am, not based on some plastic Ken doll that you put up in front of audiences.” Ken couldn’t have said it better.

Back in 2002, Edwards sent me a Ken doll dressed in bathing trunks, Rio de Janeiro Ken, with a teasing note, because he didn’t like my reference to him as a Ken doll in a column.

In retrospect, the comparison was not fair — to Ken.

As Program Moves Poor to Suburbs, Tensions Follow -- Section 8 program is designed to encourage low-income tenants to settle in middle-income areas.

From The New York Times:

From the tough streets of Oakland, where so many of Alice Payne’s relatives and friends had been shot to death, the newspaper advertisement for a federally assisted rental property in this Northern California suburb was like a bridge across the River Jordan.

Ms. Payne, a 42-year-old African-American mother of five, moved to Antioch in 2006. With the local real estate market slowing and a housing voucher covering two-thirds of the rent, she found she could afford a large, new home, with a pool, for $2,200 a month.

Under the Section 8 federal housing voucher program, thousands of poor, urban and often African-American residents have left hardscrabble neighborhoods in the nation’s largest cities and resettled in the suburbs.

Law enforcement experts and housing researchers argue that rising crime rates follow Section 8 recipients to their new homes, while other experts discount any direct link. But there is little doubt that cultural shock waves have followed the migration. Social and racial tensions between newcomers and their neighbors have increased, forcing suburban communities like Antioch to re-evaluate their civic identities along with their methods of dealing with the new residents.

The foreclosure crisis gnawing away at overbuilt suburbs has accelerated that migration, and the problems. Antioch is one of many suburbs in the midst of a full-blown mortgage meltdown that has seen property owners seeking out low-income renters to fill vacant homes.

The Section 8 program is designed to encourage low-income tenants to settle in middle-income areas by subsidizing 60 percent of their rent.

All Aboard: Too Many for Amtrak

From The Wall Street Journal:

[M]any Amtrak trains are getting overcrowded, and a backlog of infrastructure problems stands in the way of expanded service.

Amtrak's newfound popularity has made an impression in Congress, where lawmakers view the rail service as an environmentally friendly, energy-efficient approach to reducing gridlock and expanding transportation options.

The House and Senate have passed by veto-proof margins legislation that could increase Amtrak funding by 33% or more in the new fiscal year beginning October. The legislation would also establish a grant program to encourage states to expand rail offerings.

In recent decades, much of the federal support has gone to highway construction and, to a lesser extent, mass-transit systems.

The New Southern Strategy -- Democrats Tap Conservative Candidates in GOP Bastions

From The Wall Street Journal:

This is how shaky Republican fortunes are in 2008: In one of the most conservative corners of the conservative South, Democrats stand a good chance of winning a congressional seat.

This working-class, mostly rural district has been controlled by Republicans since 1964, when Alabama's white electorate began its long turn away from the Democratic Party. In 2004, President George W. Bush won 67% of the district's vote. Today's leading candidate is Bobby Bright, a self-styled "Southern conservative" and sharecropper's son from remote Alabama farm country. In another era, he would have run as a Republican. But he's a Democrat, and early polls strongly suggest he can win.

Spurred by the souring economy and a newfound willingness to embrace conservative candidates, the Democratic Party is running its most competitive campaign across the South in 40 years, fielding potential winners along a rib of states stretching from Louisiana to Virginia, the heart of the Old Confederacy. Sen. Barack Obama's ability to excite African-American voters in certain Southern races could provide an additional boost, too.

The party's rising prospects point toward a once unthinkable goal: a reversal of the "Great Reversal," the switch in political loyalties in the 1960s that made the South a Republican stronghold for a generation. If the current picture holds, Democrats could use the Southern strength to help craft a workable Senate majority and expand their majority in the House of Representatives. At the very least, it widens the field of competitive seats, forcing Republicans to fight fires in once-reliably solid areas.

That Democrats are competitive at all in the South is one of the central narratives of this year's fight for Congress. As recently as July 2006, the year Democrats took control of Congress, a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll showed Southern voters bucking national sentiment, saying they preferred Republicans over Democrats by 47% to 40%.

But this spring, the party won special elections for House seats in heavily Republican parts of Mississippi and Louisiana. Democrats consistently outnumbered Republicans across the South in this year's presidential primaries. And in the latest Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll, conducted last month, Southern voters said they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress over a Republican one by a 44% to 40% margin, a reversal of the long-term historical patterns.

In early 2007, both parties expected only 35 to 40 House seats out of 435 to be truly competitive. Now, half a dozen Republican-held House seats across the South, including rural districts in Virginia, North Carolina, Louisiana and South Carolina, are growing more competitive. That makes life tougher for Republicans already facing a 19-seat deficit.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, in an essay published in May in Human Events, the conservative online magazine, warned that his party risks reverting to the "permanent minority status it had from 1930 to 1994."

The Republican gains in the South, which started with the Goldwater campaign in 1964, opened the door to the Nixon, Reagan and Bush presidencies by creating an impregnable voting block out of white conservatives. The reasons for the shift are still debated. Some argue Republicans successfully appealed to whites riled over the Civil Rights movement. Others say Republicans successfully appealed to voters in border Southern states who were disenchanted with the nation's crumbling cities and rising crime rate.

Why the South is moving toward Democrats today is an easier question to answer. One reason: With anxiety high about the economy, more voters are looking to Democrats amid a surge of populist sentiment and an embrace of activist government.

Democrats have also made efforts to recruit candidates who reflect the values of local districts. Not that long ago, party leaders picked from a list of liberal stalwarts who matched national party sentiments on issues such as gun rights and abortion. Now the focus is finding candidates "who would win," says one senior strategist.

Bush administration rejected a request from Texas's gov. to loosen a federal biofuels mandate that critics say is contributing to soaring food prices.

From The Wall Street Journal:

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Stephen Johnson on Thursday denied a request to cut by half the amount of ethanol that must be blended into the nation's fuel supply, a victory for the nation's corn growers and ethanol makers.

The EPA chief found that a 2007 law that ramped up ethanol production wasn't posing severe economic harm, brushing aside complaints from Texas Gov. Rick Perry that the diversion of corn to ethanol production was damaging the state's beef, chicken and dairy industries, which use corn as a food staple.

The support for ethanol has frustrated chicken and hog producers, who blame the mandate in part for increasing the costs of feeding their livestock as corn is diverted to make ethanol. Earlier this year, Gov. Perry petitioned the EPA to reduce the requirement by half, from nine billion gallons of renewable fuels mandated for 2008 and 11.1 billion mandated for 2009. By law, the EPA may waive the mandate after determining that it would severely harm the economy or environment in a state or region.

Even if the EPA were to have cut back on ethanol requirements, it might not have had much effect, as gasoline companies are already blending in more ethanol than required, encouraged by new production and the recent fall in corn prices from highs reached after floods in the Midwest earlier this year.
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The New York Times also notes:

The existing target requires not only more ethanol but also new cars and new filling station equipment.

The long-term hope, backed with generous government incentives, is to make motor fuel from cellulosic, or nonfood, sources. Private companies are feverishly pursuing technologies for using wood chips, wheat straw, waste plastic and even municipal garbage to make ethanol and other liquid vehicle fuels. But none of these is commercially practical now.

InsiderAdvantage Georgia has a headline "Obama Campaign Helped Torpedo Vernon Jones" that spokesperson for Obama campaign denies.

InsiderAdvantage Georgia has a story under the byline "The InsiderAdvantage Staff" with the above-noted headline. A spokesperson for Vernon says he knows the allegation involved in the headline is true, while a spokesperson for the Obama campaign denies the story.

For its part, InsiderAdvantage Georgia notes "[o]ur information comes from several sources. We cannot identify one. The other is Rev. Kenneth Walker, who was a top strategist for Jones’ campaign."

Someone is lying, and regardless, I don't like the whole deal. I hope the story is incorrect.

The minority population, most notably Hispanic, is surging in metropolitan areas across the U.S., outpacing growth among whites.

From The Wall Street Journal:

Metropolitan areas across the U.S. continue to get more diverse as minorities, especially Hispanics, increase their share of the population.

Figures that were scheduled to be released Thursday by the Census Bureau show that Hispanics continue to spread beyond traditional gateway cities like Los Angeles and New York into other cities, suburbs and rural America.

The boom in Hispanic population, the majority of which comes from births rather than immigration, continues to be the driving force in U.S. demographics. The Hispanic population increased in 95% of counties with an overall population greater than 10,000.

The white population is declining in about half of U.S. counties. About one in 10 counties is "majority minority," meaning more than half the population identifies itself as something other than non-Hispanic white.

Whites are projected to fall below 50% of the total U.S. population by 2050. Several states, including Texas, California, Hawaii and New Mexico, have already hit that milestone.

Among the black population, the largest growth is among southern cities, as many African-Americans migrate away from northern cities.

(See also The New York Times.)